Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks launched the Retail Momentum Index, a near real-time gauge of U.S. retail supply and demand. The tool is intended to deliver signals earlier than government reports, making it useful for merchants, investors and supply chain teams seeking a faster read on market momentum. The index combines FedEx shipping telemetry with Dun & Bradstreet’s business data to track activity and aims to identify inflection points before the release of monthly government retail sales and inventory reports. This gives firms an opportunity to react more quickly to changing conditions.
Shipping data offers tangible evidence of economic activity. Through integrating FedEx’s air and surface telemetry with Dun & Bradstreet’s maritime volumes, corporate profiles and location insights, the index creates an extensive view of retail trade. The partners describe this fusion as an early warning system for momentum changes, which can be essential when inventory turns or promotional plans depend on timely assessments.
Initial data from the index indicated that retail activity during the 2025 holiday season was softer than anticipated but stabilized as the year ended. Dun & Bradstreet noted improved credit health for U.S. retailers after three Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. FedEx Dataworks’ movement data showed a sharp decline in returns volumes, suggesting consumers purchased more deliberately and returned fewer items. For merchants and planners, this shift is important; lower volume with cleaner demand is distinct from a slump caused by weakening credit.
Monthly government releases, such as the Advance Monthly Retail Sales series, serve as important benchmarks but often arrive with a lag and require revisions. The Retail Momentum Index uses the Census Bureau’s adjusted monthly returns as a baseline and attempts to lead those reports by surfacing signals in near real time. Finance teams and inventory planners can potentially spot trends before they appear in headline numbers, which can help prevent costly overstocks or the need for emergency air freight.
Although parcel and cargo telemetry offer commercial value, turning logistics data into sustainable revenue streams is challenging. Shippers have voiced concerns about data use, but FedEx Dataworks continues expanding beyond transport to develop deeper insights from logistics data. Combining these understandings with Dun & Bradstreet’s Data Cloud is intended to make the offering more useful for CFOs, supply chain executives and investors.
Professionals involved in merchandising, buying or financial planning can use the index as a supplement to existing signals. It can help test assumptions about demand timing, stress-test promotional calendars and anticipate return spikes that affect margins. Small changes may call for tighter inventory controls, while sustained trends might justify sourcing shifts. The tool works best when paired with internal point-of-sale and customer data before altering strategies.
(Note: AI assisted in summarizing the key points for this story.)